Search for: All records

Abstract Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns, known as the “pattern effect”, is typically diagnosed by studying the response of atmosphere-only models to SST perturbations. In this work, we diagnose the pattern effect through response theory, by performing idealized warming perturbation experiments from unperturbed data alone. First, by studying the response at short time scales, where the response is dominated by atmospheric variability, we recover results that agree with the literature. Second, by extending the framework to longer time scales, we capture coupled interactions between the slow ocean component and the atmosphere, yielding a novel “sensitivity map” quantifying the response of the net radiative flux to SST perturbations in the coupled system. Here, feedbacks are captured by a spatiotemporal response operator, rather than time-independent maps as in traditional studies. Both formulations skillfully reconstruct changes in externally forced simulations and provide practical strategies for climate studies. The key distinction lies in their perspectives on climate feedbacks. The first formulation, closely aligned with prediction tasks, follows the traditional view in which slow variables, such as SSTs, exert a one-way influence on fast variables. The second formulation broadens this perspective by incorporating spatiotemporal interactions across state variables. This alternative approach explores how localized SST perturbations can alter the coupled dynamics, leading to temperature changes in remote areas and further impacting the radiative fluxes at later times. 

Abstract Mass loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is projected to continue over the coming century. The resultant sea level change will have a regional pattern that evolves over time as the ocean adjusts. Accurate estimation of this evolution is crucial for local communities. Current state-of-the-art climate models typically do not couple ice sheets to the atmosphere–ocean system, and the impact of ice sheet melt has often been studied by injecting meltwater at the model ocean surface. However, observational evidence suggests that most Antarctic meltwater enters the ocean at depth through ice shelf basal melt. A previous study has demonstrated that the regional sea level pattern at a given time depends on meltwater injection depth. Here, we introduce a 2.5-layer model to investigate this dependence and develop a theory for the associated adjustment mechanisms. We find mechanisms consistent with previous literature on the ocean adjustment to changes in forcing, whereby a slower Rossby wave response off the eastern boundary follows a fast response from the western boundary current and Kelvin waves. We demonstrate that faster baroclinic Rossby waves near the surface than at depth explain the injection depth dependence of the adjustment in the 2.5-layer model. The identified Rossby wave mechanism may contribute to the dependence of the ocean’s transient adjustment on meltwater injection depth in more complex models. This work highlights processes that could cause errors in the projection of the time-varying pattern of sea level rise using surface meltwater input to represent Antarctica’s freshwater forcing. Significance StatementSea level rise is expected to be larger in some locations than in others. Accurate projections of the pattern of sea level change, which changes in time as the ocean adjusts, are essential information for local communities. One of the factors that leads to uncertainty in the local sea level change due to Antarctic melt is the depth at which this meltwater is input into an ocean model. We propose a mechanism for a faster response of sea level around the basin when meltwater is injected at the ocean surface compared to when it is injected well below the surface. This mechanism has implications for projections of the regional sea level response to Antarctic melt. 

Abstract. Accurate estimation of changes in the global hydrological cycle over the historical record is important for model evaluation and understanding future trends. Freshwater flux trends cannot be accurately measured directly, so quantification of change often relies on ocean salinity trends. However, anthropogenic forcing has also induced ocean transport change, which imprints on salinity. We find that this ocean transport affects the surface salinity of the saltiest regions (the subtropics) while having little impact on the surface salinity in other parts of the globe. We present a method based on linear response theory which accounts for the regional impact of ocean circulation changes while estimating freshwater fluxes from ocean tracers. Testing on data from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble, we find that our method can recover the true amplification of freshwater fluxes, given thresholded statistical significance values for salinity trends. We apply the method to observations and conclude that from 1975–2019, the hydrological cycle has amplified by 5.04±1.27 % per degree Celsius of surface warming. 

Abstract Regional patterns of sea level rise are affected by a range of factors including glacial melting, which has occurred in recent decades and is projected to increase in the future, perhaps dramatically. Previous modeling studies have typically included fluxes from melting glacial ice only as a surface forcing of the ocean or as an offline addition to the sea surface height fields produced by climate models. However, observational estimates suggest that the majority of the meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet actually enters the ocean at depth through ice shelf basal melt. Here we use simulations with an ocean general circulation model in an idealized configuration. The results show that the simulated global sea level change pattern is sensitive to the depth at which Antarctic meltwater enters the ocean. Further analysis suggests that the response is dictated primarily by the steric response to the depth of the meltwater flux. 

Abstract Thwaites Glacier is one of the fastest-changing ice–ocean systems in Antarctica 1–3 . Much of the ice sheet within the catchment of Thwaites Glacier is grounded below sea level on bedrock that deepens inland 4 , making it susceptible to rapid and irreversible ice loss that could raise the global sea level by more than half a metre 2,3,5 . The rate and extent of ice loss, and whether it proceeds irreversibly, are set by the ocean conditions and basal melting within the grounding-zone region where Thwaites Glacier first goes afloat 3,6 , both of which are largely unknown. Here we show—using observations from a hot-water-drilled access hole—that the grounding zone of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) is characterized by a warm and highly stable water column with temperatures substantially higher than the in situ freezing point. Despite these warm conditions, low current speeds and strong density stratification in the ice–ocean boundary layer actively restrict the vertical mixing of heat towards the ice base 7,8 , resulting in strongly suppressed basal melting. Our results demonstrate that the canonical model of ice-shelf basal melting used to generate sea-level projections cannot reproduce observed melt rates beneath this critically important glacier, and that rapid and possibly unstable grounding-line retreat may be associated with relatively modest basal melt rates.